Western Kentucky vs Arkansas State 9/29/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Western Kentucky winning 46% of simulations, and Arkansas State 54% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Western Kentucky commits fewer turnovers in 40% of simulations and they go on to win 58% when they take care of the ball. Arkansas State wins 67% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Antonio Andrews is averaging 87 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (38% chance) then he helps his team win 60%. Ryan Aplin is averaging 257 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (35% chance) then he helps his team win 69%.

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